 |
By: Haroon Baloch
Good governance has been receding in Pakistan and tensions are mounting. The public has cherished its civilian rule during the past three and a half years, and has seen a debilitating yet resilient economy, maintaining a 2.5 percent growth rate. Still, external debts have crossed $64 billion, unemployment hovers over 6.2 percent, and the poverty rate, at 37.5 percent, is increasing with double figure inflation.
Once thought to be the next Asian tiger, as was former Prime Minister Mian Nawaz Sharif’s dream for Pakistan, the country is now considered a struggling economy in South Asia. During the 1990s, Sharif vowed to reduce corruption, improve infrastructure, and encourage growth in modern technologies. He privatized banks and industries, suspending the policies of nationalization promoted by former Prime Minister Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto in the 1970s.
However, even with these changes, institutions in the country were never strengthened. In the 90s, the country saw three democratic governments and one military coup. With corruption deeply rooted in the government structure, anti-democratic behaviors abound. According to Transparency International Pakistan (TIP), a civil society organization tracking and fighting corruption, in the past three years the country’s indicators in management, public governance and lowering corruption have plummeted. If Pakistan is going to be a key player in regional security, in Afghanistan and beyond, the country needs to rectify and improve internal institutions and structures first.
Pakistan and the War on Terror
Being the front-runner in the war against terror, Pakistan has faced other challenges as well. The country has borne a $70 billion brunt during the past decade on grounds of destruction of infrastructure and a major decline in foreign investment to almost nil due to security concerns. Over 23,000 civilian and 8,000 military lives have been lost. The United States completed nearly 290 drone operations in Pakistani territories causing hundreds of civilian deaths, with limited success in dismantling al-Qaeda in the country.
Populations in Federally Administrated Tribal Areas (FATA) have suffered the most during the past 10 years. Socially and economically, the areas are facing great turmoil due to terrorism, drone attacks, and ongoing military operations in the region.
Around two million people in FATA are internally displaced (IDPs) because of the unrest. The United Nation’s Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA) in July 2010 estimated this figure at 1.4 million whereas the World Health Organization (WHO) reported it as 1.96 million. Due to the influx of IDPs in settled tribal areas, food insecurity, inflation and unemployment have increased. Coping with this situation is a huge challenge for the government as well as international humanitarian organizations.
The 2 May invasion of US Navy SEALs to kill Osama bin Laden has left countless questions among the masses, and the Obama administration has failed in eradicating skepticism about the credibility of this operation. To this date, the US has not produced facts regarding how the operation was carried out or planned, and still no one has seen Bin Laden’s body, as it was thrown into the sea. This situation feels much like that of a Hollywood thriller than real international relations.
More or less, circumstances have worsened in Pakistan and the general public is frustrated. Today they are even more confused about Pakistan-US relations since the August 2011 episode, when Admiral Michael Mullen and Defense Minister Leon Panetta blamed Pakistan and its security agencies for maintaining ties with the Sirajuddin Haqqani network, an insurgent group fighting against US forces in Afghanistan. US Ambassador to Pakistan, Cameron Munter, echoed this statement while talking to Radio Pakistan on 16 September 2011, claiming that Pakistan is supporting the Haqqani Network and playing a double game in Afghanistan. Such statements have created chaos within Pakistan.
On 29 September, the Pakistani government organized an all parties conference which denied all US allegations and developed a joint resolution asking the US “to give peace a chance.”
Following the aggressive reaction of the Pakistani military and political leadership, the US has resumed talks with Pakistani authorities to reduce tensions. Obama's special representative to the region, Marc Grossman, visited Central Asia, Beijing, New Delhi, Kabul and finally Islamabad in early October where he assured Pakistani leadership of the US commitment to work together for shared interests. Grossman stressed that without Islamabad support, peace and stability in the region is impossible.
US Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, visited Islamabad on 20 October and echoed that cooperation between the countries is imperative to forward Pak-US shared interests, including the eradication of terrorism. She also admitted that US officials recently met with Haqqani representatives and that negotiations with the Taliban may be a way forward: “We also are open to talking, and we have reached out to the Taliban, we have reached out to the Haqqani Network, to test their willingness and their sincerity. And we are now working among us – Afghanistan and Pakistan and the United States – to try to put together a process that would sequence us toward an actual negotiation. I hasten to say that in my discussions with Pakistani officials, they hold the same view that we do. We don’t know whether this will work, but we believe strongly we must try it,” said Clinton.
As in the US, Pakistan is eager to settle the endgame in Afghanistan, and seeks the best approach towards a resolution.
The US and other allies have already announced that their forces will withdraw from Afghanistan by 2014. To guarantee a successful win in the War on Terror, the US has advocated increased cooperation between Afghanistan's neighboring countries as well as regional powers and to accept the challenges related to the region's security.
Creating Regional Security
The US has promoted the idea of establishing the New Silk Road, which will connect Central Asian states to Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, China, Turkey and Europe by means of railroads, roads and gas pipelines. The idea is that a secure, stable and prosperous Afghanistan will only really be able to exist inside a secure, stable and prosperous region.
On 2 November, the Istanbul Conference adopted a joint declaration providing a broad range of effective Confidence Building Measures (CBMs) to promote this goal. Inside the conference room, Afghani President Hamid Karzai stressed that Pakistan needs to come forward and help Kabul in negotiating with the Taliban, despite his earlier claims that Islamabad supports and shelters the militants.
The Bonn Conferences, where around 90 countries are likely to participate to collectively formulate the necessary steps for a future framework for peace in Afghanistan, are scheduled for 5 December. The discussions will not only tackle the issue of terrorism, but also issues pertaining to regional integrity, solidarity and economic challenges. Bonn could be the milestone toward the Afghan peace process where the whole world would convene to formulate the roadmap for post-2014, US and NATO free Afghanistan.
The three major parties (Pak, Afghan and US) engaged in the Afghan peace process are looking forward to the opportunity to extract the maximum results out of these conferences.
During his last two visits to Islamabad for tripartite group meetings, Afghan Foreign Minister Jawed Ludin stressed the importance of establishing peace in Afghanistan. “The Afghan people are in a sense of urgency and we want to take immediate steps for peace talks,” Ludin said to reporters in Islamabad. Grossman, at this juncture, stressed the importance of Pakistan to provide its support to make the process result-oriented.
Other Factors
There are other hurdles preventing a bond between energy rich Central Asia and their ultimate corridor to access resources via South Asia. Challenges also exist preventing relatively small, but potential, economies like Pakistan and Iran establishing new trade markets in China, Russia and India. The biggest barrier is the volatile security situation of Afghanistan.
While the roles of Pakistan, Afghanistan and the US are quite clear in terms of securing peace in the region, it is important to remember that China, Russia, India, Iran and Turkey are equally important stakeholders when it comes to integration and prosperity of the region.
Pakistan is considered the focal partner in an Afghan-owned and Afghan-led peace process and has a leading role to play because of its geo-strategic location. This is why China, Turkey and the US already have commitments with Islamabad, whereas Russia, analyzing the future prospects, has started establishing ties with Pakistan. Developments of the Quadrilateral Summit (Pakistan, Afghanistan, Tajikistan, and Russia) took place in the second half of August and Russia vowed to invest millions of dollars in Pakistan-Afghanistan energy projects, and to connect the four countries by means of modern highways and railroads.
At a diplomatic gathering in Islamabad, one of Pakistan's well-known intellectuals, and former ambassador to the US and UK, Dr. Maliha Lodhi, spoke on how Pakistan can best protect its interests in the region. She said that due to its good geo-strategic position, Pakistan is positioned well to establish itself, but only if it also admits that internally it is weak.
“Pakistan must settle its domestic issues like economy, energy crises, corruption, extremism, internal security threats, loosely woven democratic system, etc. that are actual hazards to its prosperity and are equally hindering to take its strategic position in the region's upcoming future,” she asserted.
Ultimately, Lodhi’s statement is not only opinion, but is fact. If Pakistan does not stabilize internally, how effective can it be in fostering stability in Afghanistan and the greater region?
Haroon Baloch is an Islamabad-based journalist. He regularly covers diplomatic and foreign affairs for Rohi TV. Additionally he is a freelance writer and researcher. Haroon can be reached at advertbalcha@gmail.com.
it is pak to make the decision for future terms
ReplyDeletesohail rawlpindi